Dive Brief:

• The trucking market has bottomed out, according to several speakers at the Mid-America Trucking Show in Louisville, Kentucky, on Thursday. 
• Owner-operator Chad Boblett said he believed the spot market has hit bottom, citing communication he’s had with brokerage giant C.H. Robinson.
• “We are definitely at the bottom,” DAT Principal Analyst Dean Croke also said, discussing how contract and spot rates are starting to rise again. But he noted that like last year, the market could still be rough for trucking businesses.

Dive Insight: 

The industry has been in a trough for 18 months, but that could still linger, and improvements are slow, Croke told an audience at the ProTalks Stage at the Kentucky Exposition Center in Louisville.

“It’s a bit like what we said last year, and that is: ‘Hold on tight because this is going to be a pretty rough ride through the rest of this year,’" Croke said.

He added the bottom could last longer than hoped for, with demand struggling and not getting an immediate boost over the next six months. 

The extended trough means shippers still have pricing power, according to Croke. As Werner CEO and Chairman Derek Leathers noted on a Q4 earnings call in February, some shippers are still looking to get one last bite of the apple, taking advantage of low rates.

“Contract rates were dropping 12 to 15% every month most of last year,” Croke said, noting that the rates appear to be flattening out. 

Meanwhile, spot rates, which had flattened out, are starting to move up slowly again, he said.

Despite the movement in rates, Croke cautioned against expecting a fast recovery. The process is slow and unlike any other market he's seen, he said.

Other industry analysts previously shared similar sentiments about improvement in the market and noted optimism. 

Michigan State University Professor Jason Miller said on a LinkedIn post earlier this week that he sees little chance that rates will decline as we move into 2024, an observation based on producer price index data.

He added that “it appears we are at the bottom of the pricing cycle in the over-the-road truckload sector, whereas we passed the nadir in the LTL sector.”