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Dive Brief:
- Carrier exits, denoted by revocations of operating authority, appeared to take a hit in June for the first time in three months, according to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration data.
- However, the dip may be the result of a calendar and data processing anomaly, per Avery Vise, VP of trucking at FTR. In a weekly podcast, he said because FMCSA revocation updates frequently occur on Mondays and this past June had a fifth Monday, that might have skewed the data with a seemingly larger hit.
- “If we adjust for that calendar quirk, June’s level of revocations net of reinstatement really does not indicate any significant change in the recent pattern,” he said.
Carrier exits apparently dipped at end of Q2
Monthly FMCSA operating authority data suggested grants and reinstatements (additions) overpowered revocations (exits) in April and May before the trend appeared to reverse in June.
Dive Insight:
Despite the June data issues, broader patterns suggest the trend of more carriers exiting the industry than those entering may be starting to reverse.
Additions to the trucking market were in positive territory in Q2 2025, which hasn’t happened since Q3 2022. The data point comes despite several recent bankruptcies.
The operating authority snapshot is just one way to measure the state of the industry, though, and not perfect. Notably, the data doesn’t show how large or small a trucking firm is.
Workforce data helps show a more nuanced picture:
- In June, payroll employment in for-hire trucking declined by 2,700 jobs from May to June, seasonally adjusted, Vise noted, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
- That left the industry with 1.52 million workers in June, which was a slight increase compared to a year ago. The same incremental trend was true in May.
- Both months are preliminary data, but it’s a sharp contrast to the last two years when year-over-year decreases occurred every month.
While the uptick in jobs for those two months are just fractions of 1 percent, “it’s notable that they are the first positive comparisons since April of 2023,” Vise said.
